Leading Notebook PC Brands Reducing 2014 Shipment Targets, According to NPD DisplaySearch

Sort Date: 01272014

SANTA CLARA, CALIF., January 27, 2014—Scheduling delays and weakened consumer demand for notebook PC replacements are forcing leading PC brands—including Apple, ASUS, HP, Lenovo, Samsung, Sony, and Toshiba—to reduce notebook PC shipments for 2014. According to the NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Value Chain and Insight Report, the 2014 shipment estimate for the top nine notebook PC brands is 134 million, which is a decrease from the previously estimated 152 million units. It is likely that notebook PC shipments will decline again in 2014, as they did in 2013.

“The declines in notebook PC shipments will have many effects on the notebook PC value chain in the coming year,” said Jeff Lin, value chain analyst for NPD DisplaySearch. “We expect panel makers to shift Gen 5 and 6 capacity from TFT LCD for notebook panels to oxide, LTPS, and other technologies. OEM and ODM businesses will face new challenges in the allocation of product development resources for Windows OS and Android OS. Also, as Samsung reduces notebook PC shipments, HP, Lenovo, and Asus will fill the gap in the European market.”

Figure 1: Top Nine Notebook PC Brands Shipment Volume Forecasts (in millions)

Brands

2012 Actual

2013 Estimate

2014 Forecast

Top 9

168

148

134

Top 9 share

78%

82%

82%

Total Market

214

180

163

Source: NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Value Chain and Insight Report

Notebook-PC manufacturers have reduced their 2014 shipment estimates as the market faces some challenges on both the supply and demand fronts. Intel’s ready-to-ship schedule for its Broadwell CPU, like the U-Processor line, has been delayed, which will push notebook original-design-manufacturer (ODM) production demand from Q2’14 to Q3’14.

At the same time, the expected launch of a 12.9” iPad from Apple could trigger growth in larger tablet PC screen sizes, leading to even more competition for potential notebook PC buyers. In addition, wearable devices and other new concepts are expected to compete for consumer spending during the holiday season and beyond. Finally, the trend toward user-interface fusion and operating-system integration will offer a more seamless working platform between mobile devices and PCs, which would further extend mobile device advantages for businesses.

In terms of product design, low-priced notebook PCs with screen sizes between 14” and 15.6”, which are expected to sell for $299, will not be ready before June 2014. None of those models will include touch capabilities, so the touch penetration rate could be less than the 15% estimated for 2014. In addition, notebook PCs with the Duo OS concept, which were created by Intel and PC brands, have been cancelled because Microsoft and Google no longer support the concept.

The NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Value Chain and Insight Report provides a better understanding of the relationships between brands, OEMs and panel suppliers with actual shipment information for notebook PCs, tablets and ultra-slim PCs. For more information about the report, please contact Charles Camaroto in the United States at 888-436-7673 or 516-625-2452, e-mail contact@displaysearch.com or contact your regional NPD DisplaySearch office in China, Japan, Korea or Taiwan for more information.

About NPD DisplaySearch
NPD DisplaySearch, part of The NPD Group, provides global market research and consulting specializing in the display supply chain, including trend information, forecasts and analyses developed by a global team of experienced analysts with extensive industry knowledge. NPD DisplaySearch supply chain expertise complements sell-through information from The NPD Group, thereby providing a true end-to-end view of the display supply chain from materials and components to shipments of electronic devices with displays to sales of major consumer and commercial channels. For more information, visit us at http://www.displaysearch.com/. Read our blog at http://www.displaysearchblog.com/ and follow us on Twitter at @DisplaySearch.

About The NPD Group, Inc.
The NPD Group provides global information and advisory services to drive better business decisions. By combining unique data assets with unmatched industry expertise, we help our clients track their markets, understand consumers, and drive profitable growth. Sectors covered include automotive, beauty, consumer electronics, entertainment, fashion, food/foodservice, home, luxury, mobile, office supplies, sports, technology, toys, and video games. For more information, visit http://www.npd.com/ and npdgroupblog.com. Follow us on Twitter at @npdtech and @npdgroup.

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